The teenage unemployment rate fell by almost 4 percentage points, from 23.2% to 19.2% (SA). Note that nonresidential investment has declined every quarter over the past year. The leisure and hospitality sector employs about 16.3 million workers, so the 459,000 drop is about 3% of the workforce. Of course March and April set records for declines, 1.4 million and 20.8 million respectively, totaling a loss of 22.2 million jobs. Professional and technical services up 6,500. People create and sustain change.
This drama has many episodes and we are only a few months in. Warehousing and storage up 8,200. With the return of many service sector workers, average hourly earnings fell from $30.04 to $29.75 due to the fact that these workers tend to be lower on the pay scale.
The quarter on quarter growth is -9.5%. The labor force participation rate fell from 61.5 to 61.4 (SA) and increased from 61.8 to 62.0 (NSA).
Need to file a report with the New York Fed? 2.
How do taxes and spending work, and where do you fit in? Gross private investment fell 5.6% with nonresidential structures declining 9.7% and equipment investment 15.2%. Think about what happens when, say, Christmas is approaching. Learn more at
The following graph plots payroll employment both seasonally adjusted and not.
Dec 16. The BLS announced that seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment increased 1,763,000 in July. To understand where we are then we should really be looking at the not seasonally adjusted data. How fast consumers will feel safe in returning to stores, restaurants and travel is unknown.
Average hours of work fell to 34.2, however average hourly earning rose from $28.51 to $28.62, likely reflecting the loss of jobs in the service and retail sectors. Unleash their potential.
The COVID-19 crisis is a public health crisis and an economic crisis. The report also includes a disclaimer saying that the response rate for the household survey plunged last month and the payroll survey required an adjustment. 6
During the days that the survey was in the field (June 1 to June 5, 2020), 578,473 new cases of COVID-19 were confirmed; “WHO coronavirus disease (COVID-19) dashboard,” covid19.who.int. September 2020 Snapshot .
November 13** © 2020 Economic Policy Institute U.S. Economy in a Snapshot is a monthly presentation designed to give you a quick and accessible look at developments in the economy. The surprising speed of this reallocation should not lull us into thinking that the economy will snap right back however.
Snapshot Comparison. As mentioned by the BLS, seasonal adjustment accounts for “predictable” seasonal patterns and there is the problem!
During the Great Recession between November, 2008 and April 2009, employment changes were: The largest one month decline occurred in September, 1945, with a loss of 1,959,000. 1.
Workers who are temporarily or permanently absent from their jobs and are not being paid are not counted as employed, even if they are continuing to receive benefits. 2
April
Average hourly earning decreased by 1.2% reflecting the fact that the service sector jobs added or reactivated are the lower paid employees. As was the case in March, special instructions sent to household survey interviewers called for all employed persons absent from work due to coronavirus-related business closures to be classified as unemployed on temporary layoff. That is essentially what seasonal adjustment does.
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July 15 Open interactive popup.
The BLS is candid in it’s report about the shortcomings of the data for this month: “….. there was also a large increase in the number of workers who were classified as employed but absent from work. With respect to opportunities for growth, the shift to new technologies is cited most often, by 35 percent of respondents, up from 26 percent in March. For more on companies’ adoption of digital technologies as a result of COVID-19, see Aamer Baig, Bryce Hall, Paul Jenkins, Eric Lamarre, and Brian McCarthy, “The COVID-19 recovery will be digital: A plan for the first 90 days,” May 2020.
The count of U.S. continued weeks claimed is also a good indicator of labor market conditions. For example, service producing jobs increased 2,245,000 with leisure and hospitality rising 1,239,000. Twenty-four percent of respondents cite business-model disruptions in the June survey, up from 17 percent in April and May; 12 percent cite technological changes in June, up from 7 percent in April and May. But social unrest has risen in the ranks. We know every year that Christmas is on December 25.
The stock market appears to have shrugged off the early signs of illness and has been climbing, with the Nasdaq setting records almost daily.
Digital upends old models. When asked how these scenarios might play out in their own countries, executives are more positive.
The number of persons unemployed fell by 3.2 million. Aug 12 The ensuing months will show the carnage in other sectors. Data in this snapshot are the latest available as at 4 September 2020. Durable goods consumption fell 16.1% while nondurable consumption rose 6.9%. Canada’s COVID-19 Economic Response Plan is delivering swift and significant support to Canadians. This is the first decline in 6 years after the longest expansion in US history. In the survey, the question asked how current economic conditions compare with conditions in early September 2008. We have argued for a short V-shaped response followed by a long slow slog back to potential. While the economy continues its slow march back to something like normality, we are certainly not out of the woods, maybe the trees have thinned some though. Across geographies, vast majorities of executives everywhere but Greater China report economic declines in the past six months. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York works to promote sound and well-functioning financial systems and markets through its provision of industry and payment services, advancement of infrastructure reform in key markets and training and educational support Learn what it means for you, and meet the people who create it.
In fact, due to the government shutdown, these numbers are very difficult to interpret. It should be noted however that COVID-19 has had a large impact on the measurement of labor market variables.
Average weekly hours soared from 34.2 to 34.7. Canada.ca/Economic-Fiscal-Snapshot. When an initial claim is filed with a state, certain programmatic activities take place and these result in activity counts including the count of initial claims. In all of our snapshots we present the data in a way that we find particularly useful for assessing where we are in the business cycle and tracking the U.S. economic recovery.
Fifty-five percent of executives expect an increase in their home countries in the next six months, up from 44 percent in March and 35 percent in December 2019. From the household survey (seasonally adjusted) there was an increase in the labor force and an increase in the labor force participation rate from 61.4 to 61.7.
The BEA announced that Q2 real GDP declined 32.9%, pretty much as expected, but still hard to fathom. In all of our snapshots we present the data in a way that we find particularly useful for assessing where we are in the business cycle and tracking the U.S. economic … In fact, in every region except for North America, a majority of respondents expect their countries’ unemployment rates will increase (Exhibit 8). Payroll employment fell 20.2 million according to the BLS. As always we welcome any suggestions for additional data that you would like to see and suggestions for how to improve the presentation of the data. March 20** The financial media almost never make the distinction. 0.25%.
These reported numbers come from seasonally adjusted data.
Snapshot Comparison.
Outside of Greater China, Latin America, and India—where respondents’ outlooks have held steady—executives in every other region are more likely than one month ago to expect improvements (Exhibit 6). What’s more, a shrinking workforce seems increasingly likely: 39 percent expect their workforce size to decline over the next six months (up from 24 percent in March), which is the highest share to say so since April 2009. As seen below, it now makes it nearly impossible to discern differences in graphs. Please try again later. August
The recent shutdowns combined with the recent transfer payments have thrown a monkey wrench into the behavior of these series.
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